Bluffs, calculations and stunts: the poker game begins in Parliament
The start of the parliamentary year marks the beginning of a huge poker game – with its feints, bluster and strategies.
The actions of all parties in Ottawa will now be decided according to the election calendar, which will come in the short or medium term, depending on who plays their cards well. With the end of the agreement between the New Democrats and the Liberals, anything goes.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre set the tone last week by challenging the New Democratic Party (NDP) and the Bloc Québécois to vote in favour of a motion of non-confidence at the earliest opportunity, in order to bring down the government.
However, his political opponents did not bite. The head of the NDP Jagmeet Singh retorted that he will never take advice from Pierre Poilievre and that he will evaluate each vote on a case-by-case basis. In the Bloc, Yves-François Blanchet promises to vote in favour of initiatives that favour Quebec, whether it threatens the survival of the Trudeau government or not.
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh needs time to distance himself from the Liberals.
In reality, both have an advantage in the game being prolonged.
The NDP has broken its agreement with the PLC to distance himself from a party that is highly unpopular in terms of voting intentions: he needs time to distance himself from the Liberals. It would be highly risky for Jagmeet Singh to call an election, when he himself is trailing in the polls. The next elections will be his third: if he does not do better than in 2021, some of his supporters could become impatient and push him out the door.
As for the Bloc, if an election were called soon, it could well gain a few seats. But while he may dream of becoming the official opposition in Ottawa again, he could not accomplish much in a Conservative majority government.
The Bloc therefore wants to take advantage of their current balance of power to advance the issues that are important to them, such as the expansion of Old Age Security. They will then be able to present these gains to the Quebec electorate.
The leader of the Bloc Québécois, Yves-François Blanchet, intends to negotiate with the Liberal government in order to obtain gains for Quebec.
The Rules of the Game: Parliamentary ProcedureThe game starts with a clear set playing field: the minority Liberals need the support of a single opposition party for all crucial votes, including votes on fiscal policies (for example, if the economic statement contains new financial measures) and bills that the government itself designates as a matter of confidence.
It also includes motions of non-confidence like the one Pierre Poilievre promises to table at the earliest opportunity. The Conservatives must wait until their first day in opposition to do so.
However, the government has an important asset: it is the one that decides when to put the seven opposition days on the calendar before the holiday break. He could technically place them all in December, if he thinks it's clever.
The Trudeau government has other tools that are less often used, such as prorogation, which would allow it to buy time if debates heat up and it is not ready to call an election. It would shut down the proceedings on an interim basis and would return to the House of Commons later with a Speech from the Throne that would set out new priorities. The vote on the Speech from the Throne is a vote of confidence, but the government has the flexibility to postpone it indefinitely if it suits it.
Pierre Poilievre is challenging the other opposition parties to vote for a motion of non-confidence.
What about bills?In this context, where partisan positioning will take over the role, what will Parliament be able to accomplish in concrete terms? Probably not many.
The legislative agenda is already looking rather thin: there are relatively few major bills before the House of Commons. Among the issues on the table, the Trudeau government is seeking to crack down on online harms (C-63). He also wants to amend the Elections Act to add two days of advance polling and move the deadline for the next federal election to October 27 (C-65). Both bills began to be debated last spring.
MPs have also been working on abill to regulate artificial intelligence (C-27) for more than two years now. The subject has been the subject of 30 committee meetings, but it seems to be standing still. There is no guarantee that it will pass third reading and receive Senate approval before the next election is called.
The Medicare Bill (C-64), which proposes reimbursement for contraceptives and diabetes medications, has yet to be studied in the Senate.
The Trudeau government could also introduce new initiatives. According to a Liberal source, he will soon table a bill on long-term care for seniors, a promise made in the last election platform.
Beyond these few bills whose future is uncertain, the Liberals will mainly seek to land the programs they have set in motion, such as the one on school food.
This fall, Justin Trudeau will be looking to land the programs he has launched in recent years.
Decisive by-electionsThe first day of the return to work in Ottawa coincides with two by-elections that have the potential to shake up the players. A Liberal defeat in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun – Paul Martin's former riding – could weaken Justin Trudeau's leadership. As for the NDP, the loss of Elmwood–Transcona to the Conservatives would send a signal that workers could turn their backs on him in the next election.
Eventually, the poker game will end, and an election will be called.
The stakes are high: it is the political careers of at least two leaders that are at stake.
But above all, a choice of vision for the country.
The actions of all parties in Ottawa will now be decided according to the election calendar, which will come in the short or medium term, depending on who plays their cards well. With the end of the agreement between the New Democrats and the Liberals, anything goes.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre set the tone last week by challenging the New Democratic Party (NDP) and the Bloc Québécois to vote in favour of a motion of non-confidence at the earliest opportunity, in order to bring down the government.
However, his political opponents did not bite. The head of the NDP Jagmeet Singh retorted that he will never take advice from Pierre Poilievre and that he will evaluate each vote on a case-by-case basis. In the Bloc, Yves-François Blanchet promises to vote in favour of initiatives that favour Quebec, whether it threatens the survival of the Trudeau government or not.
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh needs time to distance himself from the Liberals.
In reality, both have an advantage in the game being prolonged.
The NDP has broken its agreement with the PLC to distance himself from a party that is highly unpopular in terms of voting intentions: he needs time to distance himself from the Liberals. It would be highly risky for Jagmeet Singh to call an election, when he himself is trailing in the polls. The next elections will be his third: if he does not do better than in 2021, some of his supporters could become impatient and push him out the door.
As for the Bloc, if an election were called soon, it could well gain a few seats. But while he may dream of becoming the official opposition in Ottawa again, he could not accomplish much in a Conservative majority government.
The Bloc therefore wants to take advantage of their current balance of power to advance the issues that are important to them, such as the expansion of Old Age Security. They will then be able to present these gains to the Quebec electorate.
The leader of the Bloc Québécois, Yves-François Blanchet, intends to negotiate with the Liberal government in order to obtain gains for Quebec.
The Rules of the Game: Parliamentary ProcedureThe game starts with a clear set playing field: the minority Liberals need the support of a single opposition party for all crucial votes, including votes on fiscal policies (for example, if the economic statement contains new financial measures) and bills that the government itself designates as a matter of confidence.
It also includes motions of non-confidence like the one Pierre Poilievre promises to table at the earliest opportunity. The Conservatives must wait until their first day in opposition to do so.
However, the government has an important asset: it is the one that decides when to put the seven opposition days on the calendar before the holiday break. He could technically place them all in December, if he thinks it's clever.
The Trudeau government has other tools that are less often used, such as prorogation, which would allow it to buy time if debates heat up and it is not ready to call an election. It would shut down the proceedings on an interim basis and would return to the House of Commons later with a Speech from the Throne that would set out new priorities. The vote on the Speech from the Throne is a vote of confidence, but the government has the flexibility to postpone it indefinitely if it suits it.
Pierre Poilievre is challenging the other opposition parties to vote for a motion of non-confidence.
What about bills?In this context, where partisan positioning will take over the role, what will Parliament be able to accomplish in concrete terms? Probably not many.
The legislative agenda is already looking rather thin: there are relatively few major bills before the House of Commons. Among the issues on the table, the Trudeau government is seeking to crack down on online harms (C-63). He also wants to amend the Elections Act to add two days of advance polling and move the deadline for the next federal election to October 27 (C-65). Both bills began to be debated last spring.
MPs have also been working on a
The Medicare Bill (C-64), which proposes reimbursement for contraceptives and diabetes medications, has yet to be studied in the Senate.
The Trudeau government could also introduce new initiatives. According to a Liberal source, he will soon table a bill on long-term care for seniors, a promise made in the last election platform.
Beyond these few bills whose future is uncertain, the Liberals will mainly seek to land the programs they have set in motion, such as the one on school food.
This fall, Justin Trudeau will be looking to land the programs he has launched in recent years.
Decisive by-electionsThe first day of the return to work in Ottawa coincides with two by-elections that have the potential to shake up the players. A Liberal defeat in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun – Paul Martin's former riding – could weaken Justin Trudeau's leadership. As for the NDP, the loss of Elmwood–Transcona to the Conservatives would send a signal that workers could turn their backs on him in the next election.
Eventually, the poker game will end, and an election will be called.
The stakes are high: it is the political careers of at least two leaders that are at stake.
But above all, a choice of vision for the country.
